Hawzah News Agency- The IEA’s warning goes beyond the coming winter. The agency states that Europe’s low reserves “create a significant need for gas injections to refill storage in summer 2027,” and that this could “prolong tension in the global market until the middle of next year.” In other words, Europe faces not only a difficult winter but also a costly refill season in summer 2027, when it will have to compete with Asian buyers—who also have limited reserves—to attract LNG cargoes. That competition will keep prices high and intensify inflationary pressure on the European economy.
The politically sensitive point is that the immediate solution to this crisis, according to the agency itself, lies not in Brussels’ hands but in Washington’s and Tehran’s: reopening the Strait of Hormuz through an agreement. But after fresh US attacks on Qeshm Island and Iran’s supreme leader’s warning of a war “without geographic limits” if attacks continue, the prospects for such an agreement are assessed as very weak. This leaves Europe in a position where its energy security is tied to developments over which it has no direct control.
Overall: The IEA’s warning should not be seen as merely a seasonal forecast. It signals the erosion of Europe’s storage buffer—the layer that in past crises prevented a full market collapse. With a combination of depleted reserves, new dependence on imported LNG and a contradiction in its own energy policy—reducing long-term dependence on Russia while increasing short-term imports from it—Europe is more vulnerable to the next shock than at any time since 2022. Without a durable reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a coordinated strategy to refill storage before summer 2027, a “cold winter” will be not a worst-case scenario but a real test of Europe’s energy cohesion—a test whose cost of failure goes far beyond the price of gas.
Source: iuvmpress.co
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